Spot restocking enthusiasm remained moderate, with iron ore spot prices falling less than futures. [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, iron ore futures continued to trade in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 776.5, down 1.46% from the previous day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills purchased as needed, with some restocking at low levels, and inquiries were moderate. The market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for new PB fines were around 768-772 yuan/mt, down 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous day; in Tangshan, transaction prices for new PB fines were 780-785 yuan/mt, down 3-5 yuan/mt from the previous day.

According to an SMM survey, on October 15, the blast furnace operating rate across 242 steel mills tracked by SMM stood at 87.14%, down 0.15 percentage point MoM. The daily average hot metal output from the sampled steel mills was 2.4172 million mt, down 4,100 mt MoM. Considering the current contraction in steel mill profits and stricter environmental protection inspections in some regions, hot metal output is expected to drop back slightly next week. In the short term, iron ore demand remains on a downward trend, weighing on ore prices. Short-term market sentiment is weak, but with an important meeting expected to be held in late October, market expectations are heating up, boosting sentiment, and iron ore prices are expected to rebound.